Paris Climate Agreement: Beacon of Hope by Ross J. Salawitch Timothy P. Canty Austin P. Hope Walter R. Tribett & Brian F. Bennett

Author:Ross J. Salawitch, Timothy P. Canty, Austin P. Hope, Walter R. Tribett & Brian F. Bennett
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Springer International Publishing, Cham

Figure 2.16 is similar to Fig. 2.15, except projections of ΔT for year 2100 (ΔT2100) are shown. The range of ΔT associated with the acceptable fits is recorded on all four panels of Fig. 2.15 and 2.16. For RCP 4.5, projected ΔT lies between 0.91 and 2.28 °C in 2060 and falls within 0.91 and 2.40 °C in 2100. This large range for projections of ΔT is quite important for policy, given the Paris goal and upper limit of restricting ΔT to 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above the pre-industrial level, respectively. The large spread in ΔT is due to the degeneracy of our present understanding of climate. In other words, the climate record can be fit nearly equally well assuming either:

Fig. 2.16Projected rise in GMST , year 2100, as a function of climate feedback and aerosol radiative forcing . Same as Fig. 2.15, except for EM-GC projections out to year 2100. The same color bar is used for both panels to accentuate the end of century difference between RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The minimum and maximum values of ΔT2100 are recorded on each panel

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